Businesses often query what influences the cost of their insurance and one major factor is ‘inflation’. However, there are different types of inflation that impact the insurance sector; Social Inflation and Economic Inflation.
Whilst UK economic inflation has been reported to have fallen to below 2% as at 16 Oct 2024, rates of economic inflation remain high and fluctuating at different levels in different countries of the world.
Both economic and social inflation types compel insurers to adjust their pricing models with social inflation presenting distinct challenges due to its unpredictable nature and strong dependence on societal trends and the legal environment.
However, the latest figures for the world’s largest economies show that inflation remains elevated in some countries, excluding food and energy, a key measure of underlying price pressures.
What are the key aspects of Economic and Social Inflation on insurance pricing ?
Economic Inflation:
Definition: Economic inflation refers to the general rise in the prices of goods and services over time, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. It is often measured by indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Retail Price Index (RPI).
Causes: Economic inflation can result from factors like increased demand for goods and services (demand-pull inflation), rising production costs (cost-push inflation), and excessive growth in the money supply.
Impact: It affects the broader economy by increasing the cost of living and operating costs for businesses. For insurers, economic inflation raises the cost of claims, as settlement amounts, repair costs, and replacement values increase alongside general price levels.
Social Inflation:
Definition: Social inflation refers to the rising costs of insurance claims due to societal factors, such as increased litigation, broader definitions of liability, larger jury awards, and changes in public attitudes towards corporations.
Causes: It is driven by factors including changes in the legal environment (e.g., more lawsuits, litigation funding), evolving social attitudes (e.g., a shift towards less tolerance of corporate misbehaviour), regulatory changes, and the influence of media on public perception.
Impact: Social inflation predominantly affects liability and casualty insurance lines, leading to higher claim payouts due to more frequent and severe legal actions. This type of inflation is often unpredictable and can drive costs up independently of economic conditions.
How do they influence insurance premiums?
Economic Inflation;
Economic inflation leads to increased claims costs because the cost of replacing, repairing, or compensating for losses rises with general price levels.
Insurers adjust premiums upwards to keep pace with these heightened costs, ensuring they can meet future claims and maintain financial stability.
Social Inflation;
Social inflation increases the cost of claims due to factors such as higher court awards and greater legal costs, which are not directly linked to economic conditions but stem from changes in societal behaviour and the legal system.
Insurers must raise premiums to cover these heightened risks and potential losses, often at a faster rate than what economic inflation alone would necessitate, as social inflation is less predictable and can disproportionately impact specific lines of insurance.
What are the combined effects on Insurance Premiums?
When both economic and social inflation occur simultaneously, the impact on premiums can be significant. Insurers face a dual challenge of rising costs from economic factors and unpredictable increases from social factors.
This often results in considerable premium increases across various insurance products, particularly those vulnerable to legal claims and shifts in public sentiment, such as liability, motor, and professional indemnity insurance.
W Denis are one of the largest independent insurance brokers in the UK and arrange competitive insurance solutions. To discuss this further with a broker at W Denis, please make arrangements with Daniel Moss at [email protected] or on 0044 (0)113 2439812.
